2024 PGA Championship odds and Sunday preview: Schauffele and Morikawa favored entering Round 4

Schauffele, who entered the third round at Valhalla Golf Club at 12-under par with a one-shot lead over Morikawa, is looking for his first win since the 2022 Genesis Scottish Open and his first major championship victory.

Schauffele has statistically been the second-best golfer in the world in 2024 behind Scottie Scheffler, and his eight top-10 finishes this year are second behind only Scheffler's nine. No other golfer on the PGA Tour has more than five top-10 finishes.

The former San Diego State Aztec has held at least a share of the 54-hole lead twice since his win in Scotland at The Players Championship this March and failed to convert either into wins. He tied for second as he finished a stroke behind Scheffler at TPC Sawgrass and was blitzed by Rory McIlroy last week at Quail Hollow Club and fell to a distant solo second.

Schauffele's ball-striking has been amazing this week, and he is the only golfer to rank among the top 10 in both Strokes Gained (SG): Off the Tee (seventh at +3.820) and SG: Approach (fifth at +5.764). Schauffele's putting let him down last Sunday in his duel with McIlroy as he lost 1.776 shots on the greens, and if he putts well tomorrow at Valhalla, I expect him to win his first major championship.

Morikawa leads the field in SG: Around the Green, as he has gained 5.601 strokes to the field from just off the putting surfaces this week. Morikawa entered this week having the worst season of his professional career with his irons, which have been the two-time major winner's bread and butter.

However, he is also having the best year in terms of SG: Around the Green of his PGA Tour career, and his putter has been hot recently. Morikawa has gained at least 0.9 strokes per round on the greens in each of his last three tournaments with SG data, and all three of those tournaments resulted in top-16 finishes for Morikawa, including a tie for third at the Masters last month.

Morikawa ranks between 22nd and 28th in each SG: Off the Tee, Approach the Green and Putting as well. If he strikes his irons like the Morikawa we have become accustomed to throughout his career, he will be tough to beat Sunday given his improvement with his putter and short game.

Morikawa will also play with Schauffele in the final pairing Sunday and is significantly shorter than Schauffele off the tee. This means that Morikawa will consistently be first to play from the fairway, and if he knocks his approaches close, he will have a chance to put more pressure on Schauffele, whose struggles to close out tournaments have been well documented.

Theegala continued to battle an illness Saturday but persevered to shoot a four-under third-round 67. Theegala, who won for the first time in his PGA Tour career last fall in Napa at the Fortinet Championship, is in contention for the first time entering a Sunday at a major championship. He has one top-10 finish in his eight prior major starts, as he finished in ninth place at the 2023 Masters.

His approach play has improved significantly in 2024, and that has helped him rank third on the PGA Tour with five top-10 finishes this year.

DeChambeau is tied with Theegala at +700 odds, and the Youtube sensation finished his round in style as he knocked in his third shot for eagle from just off the green on the par-5 18th hole. The 2020 U.S. Open winner at Winged Foot is coming off a tie for sixth at the Masters last month and tied for fourth at the 2023 PGA Championship last year at Oak Hill.

Unsurprisingly, DeChambeau leads the field in Driving Distance with an average of 307.6 yards, but his Driving Accuracy, 25 of 42 fairways hit, is tied for 57th among the 78 golfers who made the cut. Combine these, and he ranks ninth in the field in SG: Off the Tee this week.

Lowry shot a remarkable nine-under par 62 on Saturday as he tied the PGA Championship scoring record, which Schauffele set on Thursday. Lowry led the field in SG: Putting (+5.956) in the third round by more than a full stroke and also leads the field in SG: Putting for the week (+10.828) by nearly two full shots.

Hovland is also tied with Lowry and DeChambeau at 13-under par and shot a five-under 66 on Saturday. The reigning FedExCup champion decided to switch coaches after the end of last season, and he has struggled to begin 2024 as he has not recorded a top-15 finish in seven starts this year.

Shockingly, Hovland considered pulling out of this event at one point because he was so frustrated with his swing.

He recently reunited with swing coach Joe Mayo, and his play has rebounded as a result after a slow start to 2024. Hovland led the field in SG: Approach the Green on Sunday last week at Quail Hollow (+3.927), and he has continued his strong approach play this week as he ranks 11th (+4.647) with his irons this week.

2013 U.S. Open winner Justin Rose is tied with Robert MacIntyre at 12-under par as each golfer is priced at 40-1 to win his first PGA Championship this week. Dean Burmester sits one shot behind them as he is alone in ninth place at 11-under par and has 66-1 odds to win.

Here's a look at the full updated 2024 PGA Championship odds.

2024 PGA Championship Odds

Odds as of Saturday night via bet365.